Running the numbers

 As promised in my earlier post on making your own choice, I have run the numbers on myself, and the most vulnerable person I know - my 85 year old, seriously ill grandmother.

I used this research-backed calculator from Oxford University.

My own risk profile came in at 1 in 111111 chance of death from COVID.  I'm pretty sure I've come closer to death from coffee consumption since lockdown started...

My grandmother, who's health issues I obviously won't disclose, but they are myriad - she came in at 1 in 203.  So her odds of survival are still massively in her favor.   

We should also consider the risk/benefit trade-off for the vaccine for our respective demographics.  My grandmother has already had the vaccine, so it's a moot point for her.  I'm glad too, because her group need it more, and seem to suffer less side-effects to boot.  I'll look into my own risk/reward in a follow up post.

Strangely, there was one key question missing from this calculator - vaccination status.  I wonder when they will update it.

In the end, I was astounded at how low the risks really are.  We are basically on house-arrest for two years and have shutdown the global economy, to avoid my grandma having to curl up at home with some chicken broth for a few days.